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" Indirect Estimation of Fertility and Related Measures: With Special Reference to India and Its Sub-Units "
Kumar, Akash
Kumar, Akash
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Latin Dissertation
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| Language of Document
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English
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| Record Number
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1058702
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| Doc. No
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TL57819
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| Main Entry
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Kumar, Akash
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| Title & Author
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Indirect Estimation of Fertility and Related Measures: With Special Reference to India and Its Sub-Units\ Kumar, AkashKumar, Akash
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| College
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International Institute for Population Sciences University
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| Date
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2019
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| Degree
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Ph.D.
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| student score
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2019
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| Note
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227 p.
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| Abstract
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Indirect estimation techniques are of immense use in providing the plausible estimates of vital events like fertility and also in obtaining other demographic related indicators like the index of contraception. A need for indirect estimation of the vital events in fact arises for many populous populations in the world like India in Asia and especially of Nigeria and Ethiopia in the African regions in the absence of reliable information on the vital events from the civil registration system. Starting with William Brass way back in late 1960s or so, overtime several researchers made attempts to develop/suggest several innovative indirect methodologies and when need raised tried to modify the existing ones also. United Nations Manual X followed by Moultrie, Dorrington, Hill, Timaeus, and Zaba in their recent work entitled “Tools for Demographic Estimation” tried to provide various important developments made in this field of research. It is evident from several recent studies on fertility and mortality made on India that, India, its states, and also several of its districts have experienced overtime a great progress in their demographic transition; and some of them observed even experienced a below replacement level fertility. It is further understood by the present researcher that no researcher tried to provide so far any indirect estimates of fertility and related indicators overtime that covers the fertility transition period of 40 years or so for sub-units like states and districts in India using a unique technique recently put forth by Timaeus and Moultrie that takes a further development to the well know basic reverse survival method already existing by means of providing an excel work sheet that makes it easy for any researcher to arrive at the targeted indicators of fertility overtime at once using very simple inputs like the single year age distribution of populations of various censuses like 2011 in India that provides even the data on single year age distributions even for districts in India. Thus said, the main objective of this study is to fill the gap, by means of providing time series of indirect estimates not only of TFR, CBR but also of ASFRs and other related indicators for districts in India in understanding the fertility transition in India at district level over time. The five specific objectives of this are as follows: (1) To obtain time series of Reverse survival method (RSM) based estimates of TFR (or TFR(RSM)) for major states and India using the age sex distribution of the population of the censuses of 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011; (2) To obtain RSM based time series estimates of TFR for districts in India using census age sex data of India of 2011.; (3) To provide various estimates of Childbearing indices like MAFB for India, States and districts using selected regression models and a given estimate of TFR; (4) To make available various estimates of Bongaarts indices like Cm, Cc, Ci, Ca, for India, states and districts using selected regression models and a given set of Childbearing indices, (5) To discuss selected policy implications based on the above estimates and procedures. It is noted for obvious reasons, generally, some researchers do not consider the last one as an objective in a strict sense. As one can understand from the above, given the only information on reliable estimates of TFR, in the present study the researcher tried to provide estimates overtime of various important fertility and related indicators like the various childbearing indices and various Bongaarts indices that gives an opportunity to understand the fertility transition by means of looking at the other dimensions of the fertility transition. To reach the above goal the researcher took the help of certain recently developed, unpublished, and yet to be experimented innovative methodologies earlier suggested by his guide Ponnapalli with his consent and also tried to provide a detailed analysis of the results obtained by means of applying various simple methodologies, maps, graphs, tables etc. Fortunately, the availability of (1) single year age distribution data of districts in India of various past censuses of India of Registrar General of India (RGI) and also (2) the availability of fertility and mortality indicators at the major state and India level from the Sample registration systems of RGI of various years in the past to the present also made the study feasible by the researcher by means of at first deriving indirectly estimates of TFR for various districts in India over time by applying the well-known “basic reverse survival method.” The researcher took help of the Excel program namely “FE_reverse.xlsx 483.38 KB earlier developed by Timaeus and Moultrie. With the help of TFR (RSM) and the various models developed by Ponnapalli other relevant indicators are derived as needed. The study is organised into six chapters. First chapter covers the aims of the study, etc., Second chapter provides the details of the data and methodological issues of the thesis, in brief. Chapter 3 to 5 devoted to present the main results of the study. Chapter six finally presents the summary, conclusions and policy implications of the study. The main finding of the study drawn from the chapters of 2 to 5, by means of analysing various indicators indicates that: (1) Fertility transition is well in progress even in districts of India especially of the southern states. There is a supposed need to bring down the fertility of several districts of the northern states by means of various programs and policies, in order to reduce fertility further in India as a whole and also its northern states. (2) A keen observation of the time series estimates of TFR and other indicators overtime of India, its states and districts also give a clear indirect indication that (i)there is a definite and consistent improvement in the quality of age data reported by the various censuses of India conducted by the RGI and also (ii) the methodologies presented here also seems very useful in deriving plausible estimates of various indictors of fertility. Finally, the study concludes by stating that however various methodologies used in the present study succeeds in providing plausible estimates, there is still a need to further improve the present methodologies used here; and also, there is a definite need to encourage young scholars in India by means of motivating them to develop similar simple techniques and to see that indirectly the technical demography still alive in India and at IIPS and useful to all in need.
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Demography
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Public health
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Social research
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Southeast Asian studies
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Kumar, Akash
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International Institute for Population Sciences University
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