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" The nature of change or the law of unintended consequences : "
John Mansfield.
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BL
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| Record Number
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1002292
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b756662
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| Main Entry
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Mansfield, John,1939-
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| Title & Author
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The nature of change or the law of unintended consequences : : an introductory text to designing complex systems and managing change /\ John Mansfield.
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| Publication Statement
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London :: Imperial College Press ;Singapore ;Hackensack, NJ :: Distributed by World Scientific Pub.,, ©2010.
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| Page. NO
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1 online resource (xv, 196 pages) :: illustrations
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| ISBN
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1848165412
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: 1908978066
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: 9781848165410
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: 9781908978066
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1848165404
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9781848165403
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| Bibliographies/Indexes
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Includes bibliographical references and index.
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| Contents
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Ch. 1. What do we mean by change? The study of change -- ch. 2. Some definitions. Natural systems. Artificial systems. Social systems. Technical systems. Socio-technical systems. A system. Complicated system. Complex system. A Component's environment. Co-evolutionary systems. Thresholds. Propagation. Initial conditions. Design space -- ch. 3. Failure by design. Socio-technical design failure -- ch. 4. Influence, boundaries and structure. Examples. Influence. Boundaries. Organisation or network structure. Regular networks. Random networks. Small-world networks. Layered and hierarchic aspects. Systems have a past and a future. Layers of change -- ch. 5. Change in complex systems. Fitness and change. Change in an N-dimensional design space. The co-evolutionary process. The threshold. Resistance to change -- ch. 6. Propagation. The temporal effect. An illustration of propagation in a model -- ch. 7. Modelling and modelling mechanisms. Models. Computer-based models. Aspects of model design. Coupling. Cumulative effect. Structural change. Mechanisms. Cellular automata. Simultaneous change. Subsequent changes. Feedback. Agent-based models -- ch. 8. Simulation. The SeeChange program and the system structure. A "cellular automata" application of SeeChange. Small-world application of SeeChange. Applying SeeChange to a business model. Comparison of SeeChange with commercial tools. Insight and understanding of system behaviour. Insight into interaction with complex systems -- ch. 9. What do we do when a change is indicated? Messes, problems and puzzles. Design by increments. Forecasting -- ch. 10. Implementing a system. Early architectures. Mutability. The crucial role of time. Design of computer-based systems. Design strategy -- ch. 11. Real-world change : EUREKA class. Aspects of the change process on a ship. EUREKA simple simulation. Independent changes. Impact analysis. A model of change on a EUREKA ship. A SeeChange model of changes to a ship. Physical model. Structure of the SeeChange model system -- ch. 12. Real-world change : climate. Climate variables. Climate data. Climate models. Simulation of climate models -- ch. 13. In the future. Surprise is always the result of change, accept it.
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| Abstract
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This absorbing book provides a broad introduction to the surprising nature of change, and explains how the Law of Unintended Consequences arises from the waves of change following one simple change. Change is a constant topic of discussion, whether be it on climate, politics, technology, or any of the many other changes in our lives. However, does anyone truly understand what change is? Over time, mankind has deliberately built social and technology based systems that are goal-directed - there are goals to achieve and requirements to be met. Building such systems is man's way of planning for the future, and these plans are based on predicting the behavior of the system and its environment, at specified times in the future. Unfortunately, in a truly complex social or technical environment, this planned predictability can break down into a morass of surprising and unexpected consequences. Such unpredictability stems from the propagation of the effects of change through the influence of one event on another. The Nature of Change explains in detail the mechanism of change and will serve as an introduction to complex systems, or as complementary reading for systems engineering. This textbook will be especially useful to professionals in system building or business change management, and to students studying systems in a variety of fields such as information technology, business, law and society.
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| Subject
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Change.
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Computational complexity.
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Change.
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Computational complexity.
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SCIENCE-- System Theory.
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| Dewey Classification
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003.7
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| LC Classification
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Q172.5.C45M36 2010eb
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