Effect of Refugee Influx on Elections: The Case of Turkey

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" Effect of Refugee Influx on Elections: The Case of Turkey "
Yuksel, Emre Foad, Hisham

Document Type	:	Latin Dissertation
Language of Document	:	English
Record Number	:	1052490
Doc. No	:	TL51607
Main Entry	:	Yuksel, Emre
Title & Author	:	Effect of Refugee Influx on Elections: The Case of Turkey\ Yuksel, EmreFoad, Hisham
College	:	San Diego State University
Date	:	2019
Degree	:	M.A.
student score	:	2019
Note	:	45 p.
Abstract	:	The political issues in Syria have led to an increase in migration to neighboring countries. In these countries, Turkey has implemented very liberal refugee policy and has turned into the largest refugee-hosting country in the world thanks to this policy. We analyze the effect of this big shift on voting behavior of Turkish citizens. Our empirical design employs refugee influx as a policy, which caused unintended socio-economic consequences. We use difference in difference and instrumental variable methods to estimate the causal effect of the influx on voting behavior in Turkey. We exploit within-province variation of refugee presence over years. Our results suggest that for far-right party, we could not find any significant effect of refugee influx on vote share in local elections, but we find a negative effect in general elections. For main opposition party, we find that refugee influx has a positive effect on vote share in local elections. On the contrary, our results suggest that there is a negative relationship between refugee influx and vote share of main opposition party in general elections. Our results show that economic developments influence voting behavior such as political polarization and ideological factors. On the other hand, we could not find a causal relationship between refugee influx and far right party’s vote share in contrast to European countries.
Descriptor	:	Economics
	:	European studies
	:	Political science
Added Entry	:	Foad, Hisham
Added Entry	:	San Diego State University