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" Econometric Analysis of World Meat Export Markets, Egyptian Meat Import Demand, and Meat Supply in Egyptian Pre- and Post-Economic Reform "
Wahba, Ahmed Mohammed
Seale, James L.
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Latin Dissertation
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English
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| Record Number
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1055109
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| Doc. No
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TL54226
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| Main Entry
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Wahba, Ahmed Mohammed
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| Title & Author
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Econometric Analysis of World Meat Export Markets, Egyptian Meat Import Demand, and Meat Supply in Egyptian Pre- and Post-Economic Reform\ Wahba, Ahmed MohammedSeale, James L.
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| College
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University of Florida
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| Date
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2019
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| Degree
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Ph.D.
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2019
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| Note
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316 p.
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| Abstract
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Egypt started a comprehensive economic reform in 1991 with domestic reform policies implemented under the Uruguay Round of General Agreement On Tariffs And Trade (GATT), the sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), and the technical barriers to trade (TBT) agreements of the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its meat sector, with a strong belief that these would result in increases in meat availability in the domestic market through increased meat production and meat imports. The starting point is studying the main world markets of meat exports to improve market efficiency for exporters and importers in the context of food security, with specific focus on Egypt as one of the largest meat importer in the world. This analysis is useful to improve Egypt’s demand efficiency of these imports. Egypt’s demand of meat imports is analyzed using a multistage budgeting approach in two basic stages, first to identify the most important meat type that Egypt is importing, then specific focus on import markets of origins for that meat type. Short-run and long-run effects of economic reform program on meat availability indicators are also investigated to see whether they significantly increase meat availability. For that, different econometric approaches and methods are used to carry out these objectives. The error correction model (ECM) using Johansen’s cointegration approach, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model, and Cholesky variance decomposition generally signal market efficiency by explaining how the world markets are integrated and quantifying the impacts of information availability about price shocks on conditional price volatilities in these markets. Barten’s method (1993) extended by Lee, Brown, and Seale (1994) is a method to choose among competing demand systems (i.e., the Rotterdam model; Almost Ideal Demand (AIDS) model; Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) model; Netherland National Bureau of Research (NBR) model; and the nesting demand system (NDS)) to analyze Egypt’s import demand for meat and for beef by country of origin. Finally, an Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model using the bounds test procedure by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and extended later by Pesaran et al. (2001) is used to inspect impacts of Egypt’s economic reform on a selected set of meat availability indicators. The main finding is Egypt can rely on the main suppliers of meat exports and on the economic reforms to have positive effects on domestic availability of meat production and meat imports.
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Economic theory
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Economics
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Food science
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Middle Eastern studies
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Seale, James L.
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University of Florida
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