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" The factors determining office investment markets in South-East Asian cities : "
Chin, Wei
Lavers, Anthony ; McNamara, Paul
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Latin Dissertation
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| Record Number
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1095630
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TLets404748
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| Main Entry
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Chin, Wei
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| Title & Author
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The factors determining office investment markets in South-East Asian cities :\ Chin, WeiLavers, Anthony ; McNamara, Paul
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| College
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Oxford Brookes University
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| Date
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2003
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| student score
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2003
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| Degree
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Ph.D.
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| Abstract
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This thesis is the result of four years' intensive study of office investment markets in South-East Asia. The research topic stemmed from the rapid progress in office markets in the region during the early 1990s, and the upheaval resulting from the institutional problems of 1997. Most of the past research on the determinants of office investment markets has concentrated on European and North America cities. SouthEast Asia and its cities have largely been ignored. The few studies that have been conducted rely mainly on econometric modelling. However, opportunities in the user and investor office markets are influenced by non-econometric factors such as the nature and evolution of the markets and their institutional environment, but these have largely been ignored in previous studies. This research examines office markets by combining a demand and supply econometric framework and institutional analysis. The thesis begins with a presentation of the relevant literature and a critical examination of this branch of knowledge: including a review of forecasting and institutional studies. Subsequently the drivers of office investment markets are investigated using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Five South-East Asian prime office markets are used as case studies: Singapore, Hong Kong, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok. This research initially assesses the maturity of office markets in each city. A time-series multiple regression analysis is then carried out, using office rental data and macroeconomic data to identify the relationship between office rental values and macroeconomic variables in the five cities. The results of a questionnaire survey and face-to-face interviews are then presented, which were conducted with property researchers in the region, and from these, the institutional factors which have an impact on office investment market performance are identified. The study concludes that the performance of office investment markets ( office rental values) can be modelled using macroeconomic factors in the cases of mature cities, such as Singapore and Hong Kong. However, office investment market performance can only partly be explained by macroeconomic factors in emergent markets (Kuala Lumpur, Taipei and Bangkok). The results of the econometric analysis show that demand side variables are the main drivers for office investment market performance in South-East Asian cities. Institutional factors also have an impact on office investment market performance. This research shows that legal and economic institutional factors and political stability are considered to have the most influence on office investment market performance in South-East Asian cities, especially in Kuala Lumpur, Taipei, and Bangkok (emergent markets), though the effects cannot be quantified in modelling studies. As regards Singapore and Hong Kong (both mature markets), econometric modelling results perform reasonably well, and institutional factors have little influence on office investment market performance in those cities.
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Lavers, Anthony
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McNamara, Paul
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Oxford Brookes University
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