Relationships between weather and the annual dynamics of wild turkey populations in New York

مرکز و کتابخانه مطالعات اسلامی به زبان های اروپایی

منو

" Relationships between weather and the annual dynamics of wild turkey populations in New York "
S. D. Roberts W. F. Porter

Document Type	:	Latin Dissertation
Language of Document	:	English
Record Number	:	1104045
Doc. No	:	TLpq304373390
Main Entry	:	S. D. Roberts
	:	W. F. Porter
Title & Author	:	Relationships between weather and the annual dynamics of wild turkey populations in New York\ S. D. RobertsW. F. Porter
College	:	State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Date	:	1997
student score	:	1997
Degree	:	Ph.D.
Page No	:	95-95 p.
Abstract	:	Reproductive success can be highly variable within wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) populations, and success in some regions appears to be primarily associated with annual fluctuations in nest or poult survival. Identification of factors causing variation in these parameters could result in new indices to productivity. Radio-telemetry data obtained from wild turkeys in southcentral New York during 1990-93 were analyzed using logistic regression to: (1) examine relationships between 14 weather variables and daily nest survival, and (2) investigate the influence of heating-degree-days and deviation from normal precipitation on survival of poults to 25-days posthatch. In addition, linear regression analyses were used to examine relationships between May precipitation and fall wild turkey harvest in southwestern New York during 1972-95. Daily nest survival was negatively associated with cumulative departure from normal seasonal rainfall (P = 0.003) and daily precipitation (P = 0.07), and positively associated with heating-degree-days (P = 0.01). Predicted and observed rates of daily nest survival were not highly correlated (r = 0.31), but rates based on 10- or 20-day means were more highly correlated (r = 0.76 and r = 0.93, respectively). The proportion of poults surviving to 25 days posthatch was negatively associated with mean daily heating-degree-days during the first week post hatch (P = 0.0001) and negatively associated with mean deviation from normal daily precipitation during the second week posthatch (P = 0.08). Survival rates within broods were not highly-associated with weather-based predictions of brood survival (r = 0.46, n = 26), but observed and predicted estimates of annual poult survival were similar. Annual changes in reported harvest were negatively associated (P < 0.0001) with the log, of annual changes in May precipitation. Weather-based indices can be a viable alternative to brood surveys: a simple linear regression model correctly predicted observed annual trends (increase vs. decrease) in fall harvest for 19 of 24 years. Predictability was similar for a more complex model that accounted for autocorrelation of error terms. Data indicate that nest success may be driving annual trends in New York's wild turkey population.
Subject	:	Biological sciences
	:	Ecology
	:	Forestry
	:	Meleagris gallopavo
	:	population dynamics
	:	reproductive