Participatory approaches to the mathematical modelling of rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuropne...

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" Participatory approaches to the mathematical modelling of rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuropneumonia "
Jeffrey C. Mariner

Document Type	:	Latin Dissertation
Language of Document	:	English
Record Number	:	52661
Doc. No	:	TL22615
Call number	:	‭NR17773‬
Main Entry	:	Jeffrey C. Mariner
Title & Author	:	Participatory approaches to the mathematical modelling of rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuropneumonia\ Jeffrey C. Mariner
College	:	University of Guelph (Canada)
Date	:	2006
Degree	:	Ph.D.
student score	:	2006
Page No	:	177-177 p.
Abstract	:	This thesis developed participatory approaches to infectious disease modelling as tools to promote the well-being of pastoral communities. The models contributed to their well-being through policy reform on the control of livestock disease control in pastoral areas. The participatory modelling approach incorporated data and expert opinion derived from multiple stakeholder groups including pastoral communities, scientific experts and policy-makers. The approach resulted in wide ownership of the findings which directly contributed to several major reforms. The two diseases modelled, rinderpest and contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), are historically the principal animal health concerns for pastoralists living in East Africa. Both diseases have caused major losses for livestock owners and have been the principal source of expenditure for disease control services. All models were built using a compartmental approach that incorporated stochastic effects. For each disease, a single population and spatially heterogeneous models were developed that allowed experimentation on between population effects and multi-species systems. Separate models were constructed for Lineage 1 rinderpest in southern Sudan and Lineage 2 rinderpest in the Somali ecosystem. The results on Lineage 1 rinderpest indicated that more effective control would result by focusing campaign resources on high risk populations with population sizes larger than the critical community size of 200,000 head. In the case of Lineage 2, the models found that the herd immunity threshold for eradication of rinderpest was less than 50% when only cattle were considered and that three wildlife species (buffaloes, wart hogs and kudu) were unlikely to contribute to long-term endemic maintenance of rinderpest. Small communities with 20,000 cattle could maintain the virus for periods longer than two years. The findings on endemic disease prevalence for both lineages indicated random clinical surveillance was not an effective surveillance methodology. Although CBPP vaccination was unlikely to result in eradication, well executed herd-level control programs would reduce mortality by two-thirds and result in important benefits to individual owners. An effective treatment regime would have an impact equivalent to a well implemented herd vaccination program. Of the scenarios modelled, the control strategy most likely to achieve eradication combined vaccination of healthy animals with treatment of infectious cases.
Subject	:	Biological sciences; Rinderpest; Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia; Veterinary services; Animal diseases; 0476:Animal diseases; 0778:Veterinary services
Added Entry	:	University of Guelph (Canada)