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The telecommunication industry in Pakistan has come a long way since the country's independence in 1947. The initial era could be fairly termed as the PTCL (Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited) monopoly, for it was the sole provider of all telecommunication services across the country. It was not until four decades later that the region embarked into the new world of wireless communication, hence ending the decades old PTCL monopoly. The industry today stands on the brink of a similar crossroads via transition from second generation to something beyond. With the partial success of 3G in Europe and the USA, the government has announced the release of three 3G licenses by mid 2009. This decision is not yet fully supported by all but still initiated parallel efforts by the operators and the vendors to integrate this next move into their existing infrastructure. Industry critics, however, have shown mixed emotions towards 3G. The well-tested, stable, and mature 2 and 2.5G wireless networks demonstrate excellent results in overall network performance and integration, whereas 3G wireless is still in the jittery phase of its evolution. Operators with a consumer focus on voice services face a more uncertain demand for new content-based services, and broadband 3G data transport is considered too expensive for most consumers. However, 2.5G upgrades, providing reasonably fast data transport mechanisms using the existing spectrum, are typically considered more cost effective. On the other hand, ongoing 4G talk poses a threat to the still struggling 3G network potential based on the high expected demand for IP on the go. As Arthur C. Clarke calls it, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Fourth generation (4G) wireless was originally conceived by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) the same organization that developed the wired Internet. It is not surprising, then, that DARPA chose the same distributed architecture for the wireless Internet that had proven so successful in the wired Internet. Although experts and policymakers have yet to agree on all the aspects of 4G wireless, two characteristics have emerged as all but certain components of 4G: end-to-end Internet Protocol (IP), and peer-to-peer networking. The final definition of "4G" will have to include something as simple as this: if a consumer can do it at home or in the office while wired to the Internet, that consumer must be able to do it wirelessly in a fully mobile environment. Hence, sometimes referred to as, wireless ad hoc peer-to-peer networking. Thus, the decision faced by Pakistan's telecommunication industry today is tricky and challenging. It is tricky because today the stakes have risen beyond mere following the footsteps of another region; with progress and development of the industry have emerged new market trends and better consumer awareness. It is challenging because with 4G evolving in parallel to 3G, stakeholders propose two arguments: first, the high investment in the 2.5G networks has yet to provide the desired revenue that would encourage future long-term investments by the financers and second, 3G is not a guaranteed success due to the lingering shadows of 4G and its potential to become a reality as 4G proves itself in the market. Innovation and progress are indeed catalysts that trigger change and change in this case may be an upgrade, evolution or revolution in technology. The question of which technology and where or how is still unanswered. Some of the most important issues include market readiness, business issues (e.g., pricing, market segmentation), service issues (e.g., coverage, service portfolio, and QoS), and technical challenges (e.g., spectrum availability, maturity of technology, and availability of proper user terminals). This thesis will interpret such issues in regards to the expected transition in Pakistan and will justify a migration model highlighting the inevitable challenges lining up for the region's future. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
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