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Document Type:Latin Dissertation
Language of Document:English
Record Number:54215
Doc. No:TL24169
Call number:‭3386023‬
Main Entry:Michael S. Roscoe
Title & Author:Environmental predictors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Afghanistan: A spatial epidemiologic studyMichael S. Roscoe
College:TUI University
Date:2009
Degree:Ph.D.
student score:2009
Page No:164
Abstract:Limited research has been conducted on the extent to which environmental factors predict the prevalence of Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). The purpose of this study was to investigate via regression modeling whether altitude, soil moisture, air temperature, human population size, and land use type were predictive of prevalence of active CL among villages in Afghanistan at three pre-determined thresholds (1%, 2.5%, 5%) of disease. Prospective risk maps were developed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis of remote sensing data from 307 villages in Afghanistan. In terms of sensitivity and specificity, Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analyses revealed that the 2.5% model had strongest predictive capability of the three regression models with 100% power and an AUC value of 0.77 (p<.01). In each model, temperature was the strongest environmental predictor of CL at the .01 level of significance with an (average odds ratio of approximately 0.838. Altitude was the only other predictor of active CL in more than one model (p < .05, OR = 0.999). No significant relationship was found between village population size and prevalence of active CL. The results of this study can be used as a baseline for comparison and to direct preventive medicine resources appropriately.
Subject:Health and environmental sciences; Leishmania; Cutaneous leishmaniasis; Afghanistan; Epidemiology; Environmental science; 0768:Environmental science; 0766:Epidemiology
Added Entry:D. Turbow
Added Entry:TUI University