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" Rulers, dissent, and durable authoritarianism in the Middle East "
Ranjit Singh
D. Waldner
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Latin Dissertation
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| Language of Document
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English
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| Record Number
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54754
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| Doc. No
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TL24708
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| Call number
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3189307
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| Main Entry
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Ranjit Singh
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| Title & Author
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Rulers, dissent, and durable authoritarianism in the Middle East\ Ranjit Singh
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| College
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University of Virginia
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| Date
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2005
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| Degree
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Ph.D.
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2005
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| Page No
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326
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| Abstract
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This dissertation investigates cases of authoritarian regime breakdown and persistence in the Arab world, a region where political regimes are typically considered to exhibit exceptional durability. Chapter two presents a deductive model linking variations in opposition movements to perceptions of ruling elite certainty or uncertainty regarding the costs of unity or defection. The model is then tested in three modern Arab authoritarian cases: Egypt since 1977, Jordan since 1989, Algeria from 1989 to 1992, and the historical case of Jordan during the period from 1956 to 1957. The comparative analysis finds that the presence of what I term "viable" opposition movements is associated with authoritarian regime breakdown in Algeria and Jordan in 1956--57. I argue that the centrifugal elite politics resulting from strong oppositional challenges make ruling elite defections from the regime imminent. Likewise, the absence of viable opposition movements induces centripetal elite politics, as illustrated by the cases of contemporary Egypt and Jordan. Authoritarian regime breakdown is therefore unlikely. A summary of the case studies is provided in the concluding chapter. The dissertation finds that the society-led modal path to political reform based on the regime type of neopatrimonialism is not well replicated by the opposition and regime dynamics observed in my cases. Furthermore, my analysis concludes that the onset of political liberalization processes need not be associated with high levels of ruling elite uncertainty, as some scholars of political reform in the Middle East have contended. In contemporary Egypt and Jordan, confident elites remain entrenched despite moments of political liberalism. Importantly, my comparative study highlights the analytic distinctiveness of the Algerian case. Because the behavior of Algeria's fractured ruling elites was driven by strong perceptions of political uncertainty, the constraints on elite agency were loosened, thereby setting the stage for the breakdown of the FLN regime and substantive political reform. Unlike Egypt or Jordan in recent decades, Algeria thus experienced the "transition politics" or genuine critical juncture that serves as a starting point in many comparative analyses of democratization. This distinction should be of importance to scholars seeking to identify cases of true transition politics in Arab world.
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| Subject
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Social sciences; Authoritarianism; Dissent; Middle East; Regime change; Rulers; Political science; 0615:Political science
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D. Waldner
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University of Virginia
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