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Document Type:Latin Dissertation
Language of Document:English
Record Number:55681
Doc. No:TL25635
Call number:‭3233384‬
Main Entry:Kachen Wongsathapornchai
Title & Author:Control of foot -and -mouth disease for the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar peninsula campaign: Uses of quantitative risk assessment and epidemiological modelingKachen Wongsathapornchai
College:Colorado State University
Date:2006
Degree:Ph.D.
student score:2006
Page No:160
Abstract:A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) study was conducted in the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar (MTM) peninsular to assess the likelihood of an introduction of FMD through importation of livestock. The simulation yielded the most-likely prevalence at 8%. On average, each livestock in a quarantine station would have 2.7% chance of having unapparent form of FMD infection. Given the current movement patterns and import regulations, the average probability of a livestock accepted for import carrying FMD was 2.9%, and the risk was as high as 11%. From the sensitivity analysis, the correlation between the sensitivity of the screening processes and the risk of FMD introduction was substantial. A compartmental model was developed to assess the impacts of the FMD introduction and control programs in Southern Thailand. The transmission rate (β) value was acknowledged by comparing observed (outbreak reports) to expected outbreak data (from the simulation) using least square estimation; and β was estimated at 0.115. The sensitivity analysis for the annual cumulative incidence (ACI) was performed; and the effects of vaccination (ε), stamping-out policy (κ), and sensitivity of screening processes during quarantine (pS) were examined using a partial rank correlation coefficient method. The results showed that all parameters revealed negative correlations with the ACI, but only pS was considered strongly significant. Five scenarios were created to imitate different FMD control strategies in Southern Thailand. The baseline scenario (BS) emulated current strategy, and was the comparison point for all other subsequent scenarios. Eradication Scenario (ES) I investigated the assimilation of NSP test during quarantine. Assumedly 80% livestock were randomly vaccinated in the ESII. ESIII evaluated an integrated use of NSP test and vaccines; and ESIV investigated an addition of the stamping-out policy to the ESIII. About 30% and 85% reduction in ACI from the BS were observed for the ESI and ESII, respectively. ESIII resulted in the 96% ACI reduction; and slightly more drop (98%) was seen in the ESIV. The results suggested that the vaccination had more impact on the ACT than the use of NSP test. However, the best mitigation strategy was the integrated and strategic use of control techniques.
Subject:Biological sciences; Foot-and-mouth disease; Malaysia; Myanmar; Risk assessment; Thailand; Veterinary services; Animal diseases; 0476:Animal diseases; 0778:Veterinary services
Added Entry:M. D. Salman
Added Entry:Colorado State University