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" Judgment and decision making / "
Baruch Fischhoff
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BL
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| Record Number
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593368
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| Doc. No
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b422587
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| Main Entry
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Fischhoff, Baruch,1946-
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| Title & Author
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Judgment and decision making /\ Baruch Fischhoff
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| Series Statement
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Earthscan risk in society series
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| Page. NO
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xv, 348 pages :: illustrations ;; 24 cm
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| ISBN
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9781849714457
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: 1849714452
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: 9781849714440
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: 1849714444
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| Bibliographies/Indexes
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Includes bibliographical references and index
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| Contents
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Part 1. Background -- Judgment and decision making -- Amos Tversky -- Part 2. Hindsight bias -- Hindsight does not equal foresight : the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty -- For those condemned to study the past : reflections on historical judgment -- An early history of hindsight research -- Part 3. Judgment -- Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective -- Knowing with certainty : the appropriateness of extreme confidence -- Fault trees : sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation -- Assessing uncertainty in physical constants -- Fifty/fifty = 50% -- Part 4. Evalutation -- Predicting frames -- Value elicitation : is there anything in there? -- Informed consent in eliciting environmental values -- Part 5. Deciding -- Giving advice : decision theory perspectives on sexual assault -- The real world : what good is it? -- Assessing adolescent decision-making competence -- Questions of competence : the duty to inform and the limits to choice
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| Abstract
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From the publisher. Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field
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| Subject
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Judgment
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Decision making
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Risk-taking (Psychology)
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| Dewey Classification
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153.4/6
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| LC Classification
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BF447.F57 2012
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