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" Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas : "
H. Craig Davis.
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BL
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| Record Number
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634158
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dltt
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| Main Entry
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Davis, H. Craig.
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| Title & Author
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Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas : : a primer /\ H. Craig Davis.
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| Publication Statement
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Vancouver :: UBC Press,, c1995.
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| Page. NO
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xii, 116 p. :: ill. ;; 23 cm.
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| ISBN
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0774805013
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: 9780774805018
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| Bibliographies/Indexes
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 111-113) and index.
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| Contents
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1. Introduction. The Value of Population Projections. Projections, Forecasts, and Estimates: Definitions. The Basic Demographic Equation. Overview of the Book -- 2. Mathematical Extrapolation I. The Linear Function. The Exponential Function. Polynomial Functions. The Hyperbolic Function -- 3. Mathematical Extrapolation II. The Modified Exponential Function. Mathematical Extrapolation: A Review. Choosing among Extrapolations -- 4. Comparative Methods. Ratio Methods. Difference Methods. Choosing among Methods -- 5. The Cohort-Survival Population Model. The Basic Cohort Model. Mortality. Fertility -- 6. Migration Models. Basic Concepts. Causes of Migration. Estimating Past Migration. Projecting Future Migration -- 7. A Final Note. Mathematical Extrapolation. Comparative Methods. The Cohort-Survival Model. Migration Models -- Addendum: Qualities of a Good Demographic Analyst -- Appendix A: Linear Regression -- Appendix B: Logarithms.
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| Abstract
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The ability to project population trends is of vital importance for anyone involved in planning - in the public as well as the private sector. This book provides the tools for making such projections and discusses four principal approaches: mathematical extrapolation, comparative methods, cohort survival, and migration models. Following the introductory chapter, which considers the need and uses for population projections, the next two chapters are concerned with mathematical extrapolation techniques, as they are the tools most commonly used to project the size of a population and are also frequently employed in projecting components of one or more of the other three approaches.
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In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community.
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| Subject
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Population forecasting-- Methodology.
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Demography-- Methodology.
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| LC Classification
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HB849.53.D38 1995
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