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" The black swan : "
Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
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BL
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| Record Number
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701306
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| Doc. No
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b523495
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| Main Entry
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Taleb, Nassim.
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| Title & Author
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The black swan : : the impact of the highly improbable /\ Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
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| Edition Statement
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2nd ed.
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| Publication Statement
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New York :: Random House Trade Paperbacks,, c2010.
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| Page. NO
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xxxiii, 444 p. :: ill. ;; 21 cm.
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| ISBN
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081297381X
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: 9780812973815 (pbk.)
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| Notes
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Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form by Random House in 2007.
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| Bibliographies/Indexes
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Includes bibliographical references (p. [400]-429) and index.
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| Contents
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Prologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
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| Abstract
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Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
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| Subject
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Forecasting.
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| Subject
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Uncertainty (Information theory)-- Social aspects.
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| Dewey Classification
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003/.54
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