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" Market Expectations and Option Prices Techniques and Applications "
by Martin Mandler.
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BL
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| Record Number
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750696
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b570655
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| Main Entry
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by Martin Mandler.
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Market Expectations and Option Prices Techniques and Applications\ by Martin Mandler.
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| Publication Statement
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Heidelberg Physica-Verlag HD Imprint: Physica, 2003
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| Series Statement
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Contributions to Economics
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(x, 228 Seiten)
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| ISBN
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3642574289
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: 9783642574283
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| Contents
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1 Introduction.- I Theoretical Foundations.- 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities.- 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model.- 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation.- 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices.- 2.4 Summary.- Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model.- Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy.- 3 Survey of the Related Literature.- 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices.- 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities.- 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density.- 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities.- 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities.- 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations.- 3.3 The Skewness Premium.- 3.4 Summary.- 4 Presenting and Interpreting Risk-Neutral Probabilities.- 4.1 Interpretation Problems Concerning Risk-Neutral Probabilities.- 4.2 Graphical Presentations of the Risk-Neutral Probability Density.- 4.3 Distributional Statistics and Percentiles.- 4.4 Summary.- 5 Techniques for Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices.- 5.1 The Direct Approach.- 5.2 Fitting Density Functions to Option Prices.- 5.2.1 Estimating Parametric Density Functions.- 5.2.2 Expansion Methods.- 5.2.3 Minimization of Deviations from a Prior Density.- 5.2.4 The Maximum-Smoothness Criterion.- 5.3 Estimating Option-Pricing Functions.- 5.3.1 Fitting Polynomials to the Volatility Smile.- 5.3.2 A Nonparametric Technique.- 5.3.3 The Maximum-Smoothness Criterion for the Volatility Smile.- 5.3.4 Further Extensions.- 5.4 Process-Based Techniques.- 5.4.1 Implied-Volatility Trees.- 5.4.2 Estimation of Stochastic Process Parameters.- 5.5 Data Selection and Preparation.- 5.6 Summary.- Appendix 5A: Restrictions to Ensure a Positive Density in the Gram-Charlier Expansion.- Appendix 5B: Deriving (5.120) and (5.123).- 6 The Advantages and Disadvantages of Selected Techniques.- 6.1 Implementation.- 6.2 Comparing the Results.- 6.3 Robustness.- 6.4 Summary.- II Empirical Applications.- 7 Important Empirical Applications - A Review.- 7.1 Exchange Rates.- 7.2 Interest Rates.- 7.3 Stock Indices.- 7.4 Risk Aversion.- 7.5 Summary.- 8 Central-Bank Council Meetings and Money Market Uncertainty.- 8.1 Estimation Method.- 8.2 Data.- 8.3 Results.- 8.4 Summary.- 9 Central-Bank Council Meetings - Event Studies.- 9.1 Methodology and Data.- 9.2 Results.- 9.3 Summary.- 10 Summary and Conclusions.- List of Figures.- List of Tables.
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Econometrics
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Finance
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Statistics
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Martin Mandler
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