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BL
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| Record Number
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841238
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| Main Entry
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Jones, Alan, (Alan R.),1953-
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| Title & Author
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Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models /\ Alan R. Jones.
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| Publication Statement
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Abingdon, Oxon ;New York, NY :: Routledge,, 2019.
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, ©2019
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| Series Statement
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Working guides to estimating & forecasting ;; volume V
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| Page. NO
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1 online resource (xxiii, 291 pages)
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| ISBN
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131516003X
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: 1351661280
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: 1351661299
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: 9781315160030
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: 9781351661287
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: 9781351661294
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9781138065055
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| Bibliographies/Indexes
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Includes bibliographical references and index.
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| Contents
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Cover; Title; Copyright; Dedication; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Foreword; 1 Introduction and objectives; 1.1 Why write this book? Who might find it useful? Why five volumes?; 1.1.1 Why write this series? Who might find it useful?; 1.1.2 Why five volumes?; 1.2 Features you'll find in this book and others in this series; 1.2.1 Chapter context; 1.2.2 The lighter side (humour); 1.2.3 Quotations; 1.2.4 Definitions; 1.2.5 Discussions and explanations with a mathematical slant for Formula-philes; 1.2.6 Discussions and explanations without a mathematical slant for Formula-phobes
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1.2.7 Caveat augur1.2.8 Worked examples; 1.2.9 Useful Microsoft Excel functions and facilities; 1.2.10 References to authoritative sources; 1.2.11 Chapter reviews; 1.3 Overview of chapters in this volume; 1.4 Elsewhere in the 'Working Guide to Estimating & Forecasting' series; 1.4.1 Volume I: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling; 1.4.2 Volume II: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff; 1.4.3 Volume III: Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations; 1.4.4 Volume IV: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves
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1.4.5 Volume V: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models1.5 Final thoughts and musings on this volume and series; References; 2 Norden-Rayleigh Curves for solution development; 2.1 Norden-Rayleigh Curves: Who, what, where, when and why?; 2.1.1 Probability Density Function and Cumulative Distribution Function; 2.1.2 Truncation options; 2.1.3 How does a Norden-Rayleigh Curve differ from the Rayleigh Distribution?; 2.1.4 Some practical limitations of the Norden-Rayleigh Curve; 2.2 Breaking the Norden-Rayleigh 'Rules'
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2.2.1 Additional objectives: Phased development (or the 'camelling')2.2.2 Correcting an overly optimistic view of the problem complexity: The Square Rule; 2.2.3 Schedule slippage due to resource ramp-up delays: The Pro Rata Product Rule; 2.2.4 Schedule slippage due to premature resource reduction; 2.3 Beta Distribution: A practical alternative to Norden-Rayleigh; 2.3.1 PERT-Beta Distribution: A viable alternative to Norden-Rayleigh?; 2.3.2 Resource profiles with Norden-Rayleigh Curves and Beta Distribution PDFs; 2.4 Triangular Distribution: Another alternative to Norden-Rayleigh
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2.5 Truncated Weibull Distributions and their Beta equivalents2.5.1 Truncated Weibull Distributions for solution development; 2.5.2 General Beta Distributions for solution development; 2.6 Estimates to Completion with Norden-Rayleigh Curves; 2.6.1 Guess and Iterate Technique; 2.6.2 Norden-Rayleigh Curve fitting with Microsoft Excel Solver; 2.6.3 Linear transformation and regression; 2.6.4 Exploiting Weibull Distribution's double log linearisation constraint; 2.6.5 Estimates to Completion -- Review and conclusion; 2.7 Chapter review; References
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| Abstract
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Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
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| Subject
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Costs, Industrial-- Statistical methods.
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Research, Industrial-- Statistical methods.
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Risk-- Statistical methods.
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BUSINESS ECONOMICS-- Industries-- General.
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Costs, Industrial-- Statistical methods.
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Research, Industrial-- Statistical methods.
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Risk-- Statistical methods.
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| Dewey Classification
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338.5/1
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| LC Classification
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TS167.J662 2019
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