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BL
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860432
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| Main Entry
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Davis, Peter,1947 April 25-
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| Title & Author
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Simulating societal change : : counterfactual modelling for social and policy inquiry /\ Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee.
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| Publication Statement
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Cham, Switzerland :: Springer,, [2019]
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| Series Statement
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Computational social sciences
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| Page. NO
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1 online resource
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| ISBN
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3030047865
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: 3030047873
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: 9783030047863
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: 9783030047870
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3030047857
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9783030047856
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| Bibliographies/Indexes
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Includes bibliographical references.
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| Contents
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Intro; Statistics New Zealand Disclaimer; Acknowledgments; Contents; Chapter 1: Introduction; Quantitative and Computational Techniques; Sociology as a Population and Policy Science; New Zealand: A Social Laboratory?; A Period of Rapid Social and Economic Change; The New Zealand Longitudinal Census; SociaLab, Our Inquiry Tool; Conclusion; References; Chapter 2: Conceptual and Analytical Foundations; Societal Change as the Starting Point; But Building "from the Bottom Up"; Concepts of the Middle Range; The Life Course as a Key Organising Concept
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But Identifying Social Mechanisms and Social Assets as WellStructure and Agency; Conclusion; References; Chapter 3: SociaLab: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model; The Field of Social Simulation; Agent-Based Modelling and Microsimulation; From Static to Dynamic; Framework and Components; Estimation Procedure; Implementing SociaLab; Conclusion; References; Chapter 4: Tracking Societal Change: Its Major Components; The Life Course: Seven Stages; The Era: "Decade of Deregulation"; The Cohort: The Baby Boomer Generation; Life Course, Cohort, and Era; The Role of the Causal Pathway
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Describing or Explaining Societal Change?Conclusion; References; Chapter 5: Data Preparation; The Information Framework; The Data Laboratory; The Longitudinal Census; The COMPASS Portfolio; Census Data; Harmonisation and Imputation; Creating a Starting Sample; Creating an Analytical Sample for the Main Module; Creating an Analytical Sample for the Population Dynamics Module; Conclusion; References; Chapter 6: Statistical Analysis; The "Main" Module: Analytical Framework; The "Main" Module: Modelling Social Mechanisms; The "Main" Module: Estimating Life Transitions
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The "Population Dynamics" Module: Accounting for Population DynamicsDeath; Emigration; Immigration; Birth; Projection into the Future; Conclusion; References; Chapter 7: Simulation; Base Simulation: Main Module; Impact of Population Dynamics; Death; Emigration; Immigration; Birth; Calibration, Alignment, and Validation; Projection and Scenario Testing; The Simario/Shiny Tool; Conclusion; References; Chapter 8: The "Seven Ages": A Framework for Social and Policy Issues; Early Childhood: Health and Thriving (0-4 Years); Childhood and Early Adolescence: Education and Readiness for Life (5-14)
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Youth and Emergent Adulthood: Gaining and Keeping Employment (15-20)Transition to Adulthood: Settling into Stable Partnership (20-29); Middle Adulthood: Successfully Raising Families (30-54); Older Life: Retirement and Successful Ageing (55-74); Later Life: The Risks of Dependency (75+); Conclusion; References; Chapter 9: Tracking Societal Change: Descriptive Results; Simulating Societal Change; Overall Trends; Gender Comparisons; Ethnic Comparisons; Age-Group Comparisons; Conclusion; References; Chapter 10: "What If?": Counterfactual Modelling with SociaLab
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| Abstract
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This book presents a method for creating a working model of society, using data systems and simulation techniques, that can be used for testing propositions of scientific and policy nature. The model is based on the example of New Zealand, but will be applicable to other countries. It is expected that collaborators in other countries can emulate this example with their data systems for teaching and policy purposes, producing a cross-national "collaboratory". This enterprise will evolve with, and to a degree independently of, the book itself, with a supporting website as well as teaching and scientific initiatives. Readers of this text will, for the first time, have a simulation-based working model of society that can be interrogated for policy and substantive purposes. This book will appeal to researchers and professionals from various disciplines working within the social sciences, particularly on matters of demography and public policy.
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| Subject
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Social change.
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| Subject
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Social change.
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| Subject
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SOCIAL SCIENCE-- General.
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| Dewey Classification
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303.4
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| LC Classification
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HM831
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| Added Entry
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Lay-Yee, Roy.
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