| Document Type
|
:
|
BL
|
| Record Number
|
:
|
878092
|
| Main Entry
|
:
|
Bryant, John.
|
| Title & Author
|
:
|
Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting.
|
| Publication Statement
|
:
|
Milton :: Chapman and Hall/CRC,, 2018.
|
| Series Statement
|
:
|
Chapman and Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences Ser.
|
| Page. NO
|
:
|
1 online resource (293 pages)
|
| ISBN
|
:
|
0429841345
|
|
|
:
|
: 9780429841347
|
| Notes
|
:
|
11.1 Infant Mortality Rate.
|
| Contents
|
:
|
Cover; Half title; Title; Copyright; Contents; Preface; Chapter 1 Introduction; 1.1 Example: Mortality Rates for Māori; 1.2 Our Approach to Demographic Estimation and Forecasting; 1.3 Outline of the Rest of the Book; 1.4 References and Further Reading; Part I Demographic Foundations; Chapter 2 Demographic Foundations; 2.1 References and Further Reading; Chapter 3 Demographic Individuals; 3.1 Attributes; 3.2 Events; 3.3 Lexis Diagram; 3.4 Twelve Fictitious Individuals; 3.5 References and Further Reading; Chapter 4 Demographic Arrays; 4.1 Population Counts; 4.2 Death Counts; 4.3 Movements.
|
|
|
:
|
4.4 Alternative Representations of Changing Statuses4.5 Non-Demographic Events; 4.6 Exposure; 4.7 Age, Period, and Cohort; 4.8 Rates, Proportions, Means, and Ratios; 4.9 Super-Population and Finite-Population Quantities; 4.10 Collapsing Dimensions; 4.11 References and Further Reading; Chapter 5 Demographic Accounts; 5.1 Demographic Systems; 5.2 Demographic Accounts; 5.3 Account with No Region and No Age; 5.4 Account with Region and No Age; 5.5 Account with Age and No Region; 5.6 Movements Accounts and Transitions Accounts*; 5.7 Mathematical Description of Accounting Identities*
|
|
|
:
|
5.8 References and Further ReadingChapter 6 Demographic Data; 6.1 Traditional Data Sources; 6.2 New Data Sources; 6.3 Data Quality and Model Choice; 6.4 References and Further Reading; Part II Bayesian Foundations; Chapter 7 Bayesian Foundations; 7.1 Bayesian Statistics; 7.2 Features of a Bayesian Data Analysis; 7.3 References and Further Reading; Chapter 8 Bayesian Model Specification; 8.1 Using Probability Distributions to Quantify Uncertainty . .; 8.2 Posterior as a Compromise between Likelihood and Prior .; 8.3 Standard Probability Distributions; 8.3.1 Poisson Distribution.
|
|
|
:
|
8.3.2 Binomial Distribution8.3.3 Normal Distribution; 8.3.4 Half-t Distribution; 8.4 Exchangeability; 8.5 Partial Exchangeability; 8.5.1 Exchangeability within Groups; 8.5.2 Exchangeable Residuals; 8.5.3 Exchangeable Increments; 8.6 Pooling Information; 8.7 Hierarchy; 8.8 Incorporating External Information; 8.8.1 Priors; 8.8.2 Covariates; 8.8.3 Embedding the Model in a Larger Model; 8.9 References and Further Reading; Chapter 9 Bayesian Inference and Model Checking; 9.1 Computation; 9.2 Summarizing the Posterior Distribution; 9.2.1 Summary Measures; 9.2.2 Calculating Posterior Summaries.
|
|
|
:
|
9.3 Derived Distributions9.3.1 Posterior Distribution for Derived Quantities; 9.3.2 Posterior Predictive Distribution; 9.4 Missing Data; 9.5 Forecasting; 9.6 Model Checking; 9.6.1 Responsible Modelers Check and Revise their Models; 9.6.2 Heldback Data; 9.6.3 Replicate Data; 9.7 Simulation and Calibration*; 9.8 References and Further Reading; Part III Inferring Arrays from Reliable Data; Chapter 10 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Reliable Data; 10.1 Summary of the Framework of Part III; 10.2 Applications; 10.3 References and Further Reading; Chapter 11 Infant Mortality in Sweden.
|
| Abstract
|
:
|
Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters ... as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future. D̃aniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques.
|
| Subject
|
:
|
Demography-- Statistical methods.
|
| Subject
|
:
|
Population forecasting-- Statistical methods.
|
| Subject
|
:
|
Demography-- Statistical methods.
|
| Subject
|
:
|
MEDICAL-- Epidemiology.
|
| Subject
|
:
|
Population forecasting-- Statistical methods.
|
| Dewey Classification
|
:
|
304.601/519287
|
| LC Classification
|
:
|
HB849.53.B79 2018
|
| Added Entry
|
:
|
Zhang, Junni L.
|