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BL
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| Record Number
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891145
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| Main Entry
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Xiamen da xue., Center for Macroeconomic Research,author.
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| Title & Author
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China's macroeconomic outlook : : quarterly forecast and analysis report, October 2018 /\ Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University ; by the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM) team Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University.
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| Publication Statement
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Singapore :: Springer,, [2019]
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| Page. NO
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1 online resource
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| ISBN
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9789811360770
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: 9811360774
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9789811360763
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9811360766
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| Contents
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Intro; Preface; Acknowledgements; Contents; Principal Investigator; Executive Summary; 1 China's Economic Performance in the First Half of 2018; 1.1 GDP Growth Declined Slightly, and Consumption Was Still the Main Driver; 1.2 Consumption Growth Slowed Down, and Motor Vehicles Consumption Became the Main Factor; 1.3 The Growth of Investment in Manufacturing Edged up, While the Growth of Infrastructure Investment Declined Significantly and that of Investment in Real Estate Development Maintained Stable; 1.4 The Trade Surplus Shrunk Significantly, While the Trade Surplus with the US Kept Rising
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1.5 The CPI Remained Low and the PPI Rebounded Slightly1.6 The Grow Rate of M2 Hit a New Low, and Shrinking Non-standard Financing Suppressed Social Financing; 1.7 The Growth Rate of Fiscal Revenues Was Relatively High, and that of Land Transfer Income Continued to Rise; Reference; 2 Quarterly Forecast for 2018-19; 2.1 Assumptions on Exogenous Variables; 2.1.1 GDP Growth of the US and the Euro Zone; 2.1.2 The Exchange Rates; 2.1.3 The Broad Money Supply (M2); 2.2 Scenarios Planning to Simulate the Impact of Sino-US Trade Disputes
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2.3 Quarterly Forecast of China's Key Macroeconomic Indicators in 2018-192.3.1 Projected GDP Growth; 2.3.2 Projected Growth of Exports and Imports; 2.3.3 Projected Growth of Investment; 2.4 Projected Growth of Other Key Macroeconomic Indicators; 2.4.1 Projected Growth of Key Price Indicators; 2.4.2 Projected Growth of Residents' Income and Consumption; 3 Policy Simulation: Effects of Changes in the Household Debt Ratio on China's GDP Growth; 3.1 Changes in the Household Debt Ratio; 3.2 The Transmission Path of the Household Debt Ratio Affecting Macroeconomic Operation
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3.3 Scenario Simulation and Result Analysis4 Policy Implications and Suggestions; Appendix Report on the Questionnaire Survey on China's Macroeconomic Situation and Policy in 2018
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| Abstract
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This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, focusing on China's economic growth and macroeconomic policy. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China' major macroeconomic variables. Since July 2006, twenty-four quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and eleven annual reports have been published. This 25th quarterly report was presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 25, 2018. This conference was jointly held by SOAS London University, Xiamen University, and Economic Information Daily in London, UK.--
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| Subject
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Economic forecasting-- China.
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| Subject
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Macroeconomics.
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BUSINESS ECONOMICS-- Economics-- Macroeconomics.
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Economic forecasting.
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Economic history.
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Economic policy.
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Macroeconomics.
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POLITICAL SCIENCE-- Economic Conditions.
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| Subject
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China, Economic conditions, 2000-
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China, Economic policy.
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| Subject
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China.
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| Dewey Classification
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339
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| LC Classification
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HC427.95.X53
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