A Dynamic Theory of Battle Victory and Defeat

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" A Dynamic Theory of Battle Victory and Defeat "
Collins, Randall

Document Type	:	AL
Record Number	:	907791
Doc. No	:	LA5mv6v0r1
Title & Author	:	A Dynamic Theory of Battle Victory and Defeat [Article]\ Collins, Randall
Date	:	2010
Title of Periodical	:	UC Riverside
Abstract	:	Victory or defeat in battle is modeled as a set of flow charts for dynamic simulation. Two main causal pathways are: from material resources via logistics to firepower at point of assault; and from organizational morale (emotional energy, coordination, discipline) to maneuver. According to empirical research by the author and others, the crucial event is organizational breakdown, which is more strongly affected by maneuver than by firepower of assault, and which leads to battle victory or defeat. Casualties are more strongly affected by organizational breakdown than by assault firepower. Additional pathways lead to attrition, feedbacks to material resources and to morale, and to long-term war outcomes and geopolitical consequences. Revolutions in military technology do not require a separate model or new theory, since all technological innovations operate by changing the strength of pathways in the basic model. These models give a more precise understanding of Clausewitzian friction or “fog of war.”