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" The Science and Ethics of Causal Modeling "
Pearl, Judea
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AL
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| Record Number
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917883
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LA41c9q6z3
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| Title & Author
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The Science and Ethics of Causal Modeling [Article]\ Pearl, Judea
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2010
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UCLA
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| Abstract
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The intrinsic schism between causal and associational relations presents profound ethical and methodological challenges to researchers in the social and behavioral sciences, ranging from the statement of a problem, to the implementation of a study, to the reporting of finding. This paper describes a causal modeling framework that mitigates these challenges by offering a simple, yet formal and principled methodology for causal analysis in empirical research. The framework is based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in (Pearl, 2000) -- a non-parametric extension of structural equation models that provides a mathematical foundation and a friendly calculus for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper establishes a methodology for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called ``causal effects'' or ``policy evaluation''), (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of ``regret,'' ``attribution,'' or ``causes of effects''), and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as ``mediation'' or ``effect decomposition''). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and demonstrates a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both.
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