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" Blindside : "
Francis Fukuyama, editor.
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BL
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| Record Number
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961374
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| Doc. No
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b715744
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| Title & Author
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Blindside : : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /\ Francis Fukuyama, editor.
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| Publication Statement
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Washington, D.C. :: Brookings Institution Press,, ©2007.
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| Page. NO
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1 online resource (vi, 198 pages)
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| ISBN
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0815729898
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: 1281029637
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: 9780815729891
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: 9781281029638
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0815729901
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9780815729907
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| Notes
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"An American Interest Book."
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| Bibliographies/Indexes
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Includes bibliographical references (pages 173-180) and index.
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| Contents
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The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Notes -- Contributors -- Index.
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| Abstract
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"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
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| Subject
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Emergency management-- United States.
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International relations.
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Emergency management.
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International relations.
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NATURE-- Natural Disasters.
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SOCIAL SCIENCE-- Disasters Disaster Relief.
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11 September 2001.
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Rampen.
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Voorspellingen.
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Voorzorg.
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Wereldcrises.
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United States.
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| Dewey Classification
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363.34/7
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| LC Classification
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HV551.3.B57 2007eb
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| NLM classification
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89.70bcl
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89.70.bcl
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| Added Entry
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Fukuyama, Francis
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